Who would've ever believed it?

Only took 108 years.

I can't speak to the first 60+ years.  

I've always wondered.. Assuming all teams are equal, what's the probability of a 108 year drought?

M57 wrote:

I've always wondered.. Assuming all teams are equal, what's the probability of a 108 year drought?

for N teams, there is a 1/N chance of winning the championship.  Which means a (N-1)/N chance of not being the winner.

the probability of losing K years in a row P(k) = ((N-1)/N)^k

The size of MLB has changed over the years.  I have no idea, but let's pretend it's been an average of 25 teams over the last 108 years.

P(1) = 24/25 = .96

P(108) = 0.01217

So about a 1% chance of losing 108 times in a row in a group of 25.

*spoilers* 

Ozyman wrote:

M57 wrote:

I've always wondered.. Assuming all teams are equal, what's the probability of a 108 year drought?

for N teams, there is a 1/N chance of winning the championship.  Which means a (N-1)/N chance of not being the winner.

the probability of losing K years in a row P(k) = ((N-1)/N)^k

 

The size of MLB has changed over the years.  I have no idea, but let's pretend it's been an average of 25 teams over the last 108 years.

P(1) = 24/25 = .96

P(108) = 0.01217

So about a 1% chance of losing 108 times in a row in a group of 25.

 

I was going to guess in the 2-3% range.

Booooooo cubs.

Although they do have a good team. And a very good chance of going back next year.

As a life long Cub fan, last night was amazing and it'll take a week for my voice to recover.  Also, I've given more high fives in the last 24 hours then in my 35+ years combined.

But I really feel like this series has meant more to me as a mere baseball fan:
These last 7 games have been what the sport is about.  There were pitching duels.  Offensive duels.  Ebbs and flows.  Emotion.  This is what the fall classic is supposed to be...every year. 

And for any future year that the two teams going into it aren't going to battle like both the Indians and the Cubs have over the last 10 days...we should just cancel the series, flip a coin, and declare a winner.

Don't know how everyone else felt about it, but I thought the game would likely have been a blowout easy win had Joe not overmanaged the game. Don't get me wrong, I like Maddon a lot and I wouldn't trade him with another manager as a large majority of his moves the last couple seasons were pretty good and he had the occasional gutsy move that worked out.

But, taking out Hendricks when he was really getting into his groove in the 5th, then after Lester's early issues, taking HIM out after an infield single that Russell regularly fields and HE was clearly settling in.  And then, of all things, to replace Lester with a tired-arm closer (tired because he was called in the previous day in a blowout win) in the 7th inning? I know players get nervous, but Joe was simply managing scared. I sure hope when he rewatches the game, he realizes his interjections let the Indians back into the game TWICE.

And then, in a tie game with runners at 2nd and 3rd in the 9th inning, he puts the safety squeeze on with Baez (who had homered in his previous at-bat) against a reliever who threw hard and with lots of movement. Gutsy move, but low percentage play. Not that Baez swinging away was also a good percentage play, but he had homered in his previous at-bat.

The game probably ends 8-1 or 8-2 without these 3 moves.  Hendricks goes 6 or 7 innings. Lester works the 7 and/or 8th inning(s) and the closer comes in for the 9th.